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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.